Publications - 

Contact Jackie Wittig at 800-821-7812 or jackie@lawrence-leiter.com

 ·            Global Warming? Meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado say the rate of increase in average global surface temperature slowed by about 25% between 2000 and 2009.  This is apparently due to a sudden and unexplained (but widely verified) drop in the amount of water vapor high in the atmosphere starting in late 2000. This is viewed as a short-term variability in climate and may only be temporary.    (Water Vapor Drop Dampens Temps; Science News; February 27, 2010 )

 ·         Printing Body Parts is becoming possible with the first commercial 3-D bio-printer for human tissue.  Costing about $200,000, the first production models will soon help research groups study ways to produce tissue and organs for repair and replacement.  Initially, skin, muscle and short stretches of blood vessels will be manufactured.  After 5 years of clinical trials, blood vessels may be grafted in bypass surgery and networks of blood vessels will sustain larger organs like kidneys, livers and hearts. New bladders made in 2006 for 7 patients are still working. (Making a Bit of Me; The Economist; February 20, 2010)

 ·         High-Speed Automated Stock Market Transactions are highly efficient but could be catastrophic.  5 years ago, automated trades made up 30% of the market – today it is over 60%.  Mutual funds, hedge funds and large brokers use algorithms that find and take advantage of tiny, fleeting movements in trading activity.  Some buy and sell 80 to 100 million shares daily.  Observers are concerned that high-speed algorithmic trading may lead to a crash.  The crash of 1987 was caused by a large group of computers issuing stop-loss orders simultaneously, causing a 22% one day drop in the market.  Some brokers allow traders to engage in high-frequency trading without sufficient margins.  (Trading Shares in Milliseconds; Technology Review; February 2010)

 ·         Air Traffic Delays cost the economy as well as irritating travelers.  U.S. Congress’ Joint Economic Committee says domestic air traffic delays in 2007 cost the economy $41 billion, including cost to the airlines and lost time for passengers.  Hurricanes cost about $131 billion for the 9 years from 2000 through 2008, far less than the cost of air traffic delays.  (Minor Air Traffic Delays Can Add Up; Science News; February 13, 2010 )

 ·         Mass Starvation by Ug99? A wheat destroying fungus first isolated in Uganda in 1999 is moving east, through Africa and the Middle East, threatening India and China.  More than a billion lives are at stake.  It takes out about every kind of wheat, a crop that provides 1/3 of human calories.  Pakistan and Afghanistan rely heavily on wheat for subsistence.   The U.S. has 40 million acres of wheat which could be threatened.  China and India could see mass starvation, particularly among the rural poor.  Ug99 is a new form of stem rust – earlier forms obliterated 200 million bushels of wheat during World War I, forcing many Mid-western families close to starvation.  In WW II, Mexico had a 3-year bout with stem rust, cutting its wheat production in half.  Finding the answer to that strain earned Norman Borlang a Nobel Peace Prize in 1970 and initiated the green revolution.  (Red Menace; Wired; March 2010)

 ·         Flying Motorcycle do-it-yourself kit in the prototype stage as the Switchblade Multi-Mode Vehicle.  It may be available in 2011.  A 3-wheeled motorcycle design avoids car regulations but civil aircraft regs are daunting.  The 49% pre-assembled body kit will sell for about $60,000.  The engine and avionics will be another $25,000.  (Easy Flyer; Scientific American; March 2010)

·         Thorium Answer to Energy?  The technology to build Thorium fueled nuclear reactors has been around since the 1950’s but the U.S. government backed Uranium (which can produce Plutonium that can be made into weapons). Uranium fueled nuclear reactors still have center stage because they are proven, have an installed base and well-established safety features.  Thorium, however, has many latent advantages.  The supply is virtually inexhaustible.  There is a zero risk of a meltdown.  The waste is rather benign.  It cannot be used by terrorists or anyone else to make nuclear weapons.  You could carry a lump in your pocket without harm. The cost to fuel a liquid fluoride Thorium reactor would be about $10,000 a year compared to $50 million for Uranium reactors.  India, China, France and the United Arab Emirates are taking notice.  (The New Nuke; Fortune; January 2010)

 ·            China’s Scientific Knowledge Production, is likely to overtake the U.S. before 2020.  Research spending in Europe and North America has outpaced economic growth but China ’s investment in R&D has grown at an annual rate of 18%.  100 of its 1,700 higher education institutions make up the “project 211” group that trains 80% of the PhDs, two-thirds of the graduate students, and is home to 96% of the country’s leading laboratories.  Last year, China produced 120,000 scientific articles, second only to the United States ’ 350,000.  China is concentrating on agricultural and bio-medical research.  It collaborates with other nations, not developing science behind closed doors.  (Science Heads East; New Scientist; January 9, 2010 )

 ·         Tires From Dandelions?  Rubber may soon come from a dandelion-like weed called taraxacum kok-shehyz (TKS).  Synthetic rubber made from oil has not completely replaced natural rubber which still is about 1/5 of the average car tire and often over 80% of aircraft tires.  Rubber trees take a while to grow, are susceptible to leaf blight and frequently replace desirable rain forests.  German scientists identified the genes that allow TKS to produce rubber and are working to increase them.   A scientist at Ohio State is grinding up roots to identify species with the highest rubber content and cross-breeding the winners.  Combining the two approaches may develop a whole new source of rubber to replace what now comes from oil (Blowout; The Economist; January 2, 2010)

 ·         Cheaper Space Expiration using Phobos, the larger of Mars’ 2 moons.  In contrast to Mars and our Moon it has virtually no gravity.  It would be cheaper to send craft to Phobos than the moon.  Flybys by the European spacecraft Mars Express have given more precise measurement of Phobos‘ characteristics.  Additional flybys will provide more information.  (Cheap Flights to Phobos by; New Scientist; January 30, 2010 )

“The Future work force will be even more diverse than you can now imagine.  At least with today’s workers, all you have to worry about is inter-generational and multi-cultural issues.  Tomorrow, look out for the problems (and opportunities) arising from workers who are technologically enhanced.”

Cynthia G. Wagner

Managing Editor

The Futurist

E-mail jackie@lawrence-leiter.com Web Page www.lawrence-leiter.com

Please feel free to use information cited in FutureFax with attribution.